The dovish signals from the US Fed strengthened, and SHFE tin may continue to fluctuate rangebound between 275,000-283,000 yuan/mt [SMM Tin Futures Review]

March 26, 2025 Daily Review of the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2504) showed a pattern of first declining and then rising today. After opening lower and fluctuating in the morning session, it rebounded driven by macro policies and supply disruptions, closing at 277,650 yuan/mt, up 1.26% from the previous day. The intraday fluctuation range was 274,800-281,960 yuan/mt, with a turnover of 31.66 billion yuan and a net capital inflow of 111 million yuan. Open interest decreased by 2,619 lots to 12,905 lots. LME tin prices also strengthened, closing at $35,015/mt, up 2.16%. Market sentiment repeatedly shifted between the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers and favorable macro policies. The US Fed's dovish signals strengthened: the US Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, with Powell downplaying the short-term impact of tariffs on the economy and hinting at the possibility of an interest rate cut within the year. The US dollar index fell below the 103.5 support level, driving the overall strength of the non-ferrous metals sector. Domestic fiscal and monetary policy coordination: The Ministry of Finance clarified a "more proactive" fiscal policy direction, expanding government bond issuance and increasing investment in technological innovation. The central bank's MLF operation mechanism reform was implemented, releasing market-oriented pricing signals and easing the pressure of local government bond issuance. Expectations of loose liquidity supported commodity prices. Intensified capital game: Open interest in the most-traded contract continued to shrink, with bulls and bears wrestling at the 280,000 yuan/mt level. Some shorts stopped losses and exited but did not form a trend of increasing positions, and market sentiment remained cautious. Short-term outlook: SHFE tin is expected to continue fluctuating rangebound between 275,000-283,000 yuan/mt. A breakthrough would depend on an escalation of the situation in the DRC or unexpectedly loose macro policies. If the M23 conflict spills over into copper-cobalt mining areas or Myanmar's resumption of production is delayed, prices may test the 285,000 yuan/mt resistance level. If Indonesia accelerates exports or domestic inventory buildup exceeds expectations, prices may test the 270,000 yuan/mt support level.